Flip or Pass How to Evaluate a Deal in Just 5 Minutes

House flipping can be exciting and profitable—but also risky. You don’t always have the luxury of time when a hot lead comes your way. That’s why knowing how to evaluate a potential flip in just 5 minutes is a superpower every investor needs.

Whether you're standing at a property or scanning a listing online, here’s how to size up a flip fast.

1. Start with the 70 Percent Rule

The 70% rule is your best friend when making snap decisions. Here’s the simple formula:

Maximum Purchase Price = (After Repair Value x 70%) – Repair Costs

Let’s say a house could sell for $300,000 after renovation, and you estimate repairs at $50,000:

$300,000 x 0.70 = $210,000 – $50,000 = $160,000

That means you shouldn’t pay more than $160K for that property.

If the asking price is close to or below that, it’s worth looking deeper.

2. Find the ARV (After Repair Value)

No time to pull full comps? Use this shortcut:

Check Zillow, Redfin, or Realtor.com for recent sales within a 0.5-mile radius.

Look for similar properties (same bed/bath count, square footage, year built).

Focus on sold homes, not listings.

You’re looking for the realistic resale price—not your dream number.

3. Do a Quick Visual Check of the Exterior

If you’re at the property, do a fast drive-by. Look for:

A solid roof (no sagging or obvious damage)

Foundation cracks

Old windows or damaged siding

Unmaintained landscaping (a clue to the overall care)

These clues help you quickly estimate whether it needs cosmetic or full-blown structural work.

4. Estimate Repair Costs in Your Head

Here’s a cheat sheet:

$20K–30K for cosmetic-only (paint, flooring, fixtures)

$40K–60K for moderate rehab (kitchen, baths, some systems)

$70K+ for heavy rehab (roof, HVAC, electrical, plumbing, layout changes)

The more flips you evaluate, the faster you’ll get at eyeballing this.

5. Look at the Neighborhood

Quick checks:

Is it up-and-coming or declining?

Are homes well-kept or boarded up?

Check crime rates or school ratings online

See how long similar homes sat on the market (Days on Market)

Remember, location matters more than granite countertops.